Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 7.6% since it almost — but not quite — touched the psychological wall of $100,000 on Nov. 22.
That’s the biggest drop since Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, sparking a rally that sent the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization soaring from a level of around $66,000 through its record high.
Even so, the slide isn’t out of the ordinary. In bull markets bitcoin typically tumbles as much as 20% or even 30%, so-called corrections that tend to flush out leverage in an overheated market.
A large part of the reason the bitcoin price didn’t get to $100,000 was the amount of profit-taking that took place. A record dollar value of $10.5 billion of profit-taking took place on Nov. 21, according to Glassnode data, the biggest day of profit-taking ever witnessed in bitcoin.
At the root of the action are the long-term holders (LTH), a group Glassnode defines as having held their bitcoin for more than 155 days. These investors are considered “smart money” because they tend to buy when the BTC price is depressed and sell in times of greed or euphoria.
From September to November 2024, these investors have sold 549,119 BTC, or about 3.85% of their holdings. Their sales, which started in October and have accelerated since, even outweighed buying from the likes of MicroStrategy (MSTR) and the U.S. spot-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
How long is this selling pressure going to last?
What’s noticeable from patterns in previous bull markets in 2017, 2021 and early 2024, is that the percentage drop gets smaller each cycle.
In 2017, the percentage drop was 25.3%, in 2021 it reached 13.4% and earlier this year it was 6.51%. It’s currently 3.85%. If this rate of decline were to continue, that would see another 1.19% drop or 163,031 BTC, which would take the cohort’s supply to 13.54 million BTC.
Each time, the long-term investors’ supply makes higher lows and higher highs, so this would also be in line with the trend.