Bitcoin Options Tilt Bearish Ahead of Friday's Expiry: Crypto Daybook Americas

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By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

September has started much like August ended, with low volumes, subdued volatility, and most of the market-moving headlines coming from traditional finance.

Gold rose to $3,560 before easing back, while government bond yields globally retreated from recent highs.

Bitcoin perpetual funding rates, payments designed to keep perpetual futures contracts close to the spot price, have cooled and are now around 6% after hitting double-digit levels earlier. Open interest, meantime, continues to drop, with just over 720,000 contracts outstanding, denominated in BTC.

As for publicly listed bitcoin treasury companies, their multiples to net asset value (mNAV) are also extending declines.

Strategy (MSTR) now trades at an mNAV of just over 1.55 and Metaplanet (3350) sits at 1.71 after a 7% share-priced ecline in Japan trading. KindlyMD (NAKA) dropped a further 9% on Wednesday, leaving it down 75% from its all-time high, and now trades at an mNAV of 2.5.

More than $4.5 billion in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit, on Friday, which is also the day of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. For bitcoin, $3.28 billion in notional value is due, with a max pain point at $112,000 and a put-call ratio of 1.38.

“Open interest is tilted toward puts, with notable clustering around the $105,000 to $110,000 strikes, suggesting downside protection remains a key theme,” the derivatives exchange said in a post on X.

Ether options account for $1.27 billion in notional value, with a put-call ratio of 0.78 and a max pain level of $4,400.

Deribit notes “flows are more balanced, but calls are building above $4,500, signaling growing interest in upside optionality”. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • Sept. 4: Polygon will switch its mainnet token to POL from MATIC. Holders of MATIC on Ethereum, Polygon zkEVM or centralized exchanges may need to take action.
    • Sept. 4: Apex Fusion’s dedicated EVM-compatible layer-2 blockchain, Nexus, goes live. The chain, which aims to unite UTXO and EVM ecosystems, integrates with Tenderly’s infrastructure and development toolkit.
    • Sept. 10, 9:15 a.m.: Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan V. Gould will talk about digital assets at the CoinDesk: Policy & Regulation Conference in Washington.
  • Macro
    • Sept. 4, 8:15 a.m.: Automatic Data Processing (ADP) releases August U.S. private-sector employment data.
      • Employment Change Est. 68K vs. Prev. 104K
    • Sept. 4, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases August Canada data on manufacturing and services activity.
      • Composite PMI Prev. 48.7
      • Services PMI Prev. 49.3
    • Sept. 4, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) August U.S. data on manufacturing and services activity.
      • Composite PMI Est. 55.4 vs. Prev. 55.1
      • Services PMI Est. 55.4 vs. Prev. 55.7
    • Sept. 4, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases August U.S. services sector data.
      • Services PMI Est. Est. 51 vs. Prev. 50.1
    • Sept. 4, 1 p.m.: Uruguay’s National Institute of Statistics releases August inflation data.
      • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4.53%
    • Sept. 4, 3 p.m.: Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) releases August producer price inflation data.
    • Sept. 4, evening: President Donald Trump will host a private dinner in the newly renovated White House Rose Garden for about two dozen top tech and business leaders, including Mark Zuckerberg, Tim Cook, Bill Gates and Sam Altman.
    • Sept. 5, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases July producer price inflation data.
      • PPI MoM Prev. -1.25%
      • PPI YoY Prev. 3.24%
    • Sept. 5, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases August employment data.
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 7% vs. Prev. 6.9%
      • Employment Change Est. 7.5K vs. Prev. -40.8K
    • Sept. 5, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases August employment data.
      • Nonfarm Payrolls Est. 75K vs. Prev. 73K
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 4.3% vs. Prev. 4.2%
      • Government Payrolls Prev. -10K
      • Manufacturing Payrolls Est. -5K vs. Prev. -11K
    • Sept. 5: S&P 500 Rebalance update released after market close. Strategy (MSTR) is one of the companies being considered for inclusion in the index.
    • Sept. 5, 7 p.m.: Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics releases August consumer price inflation data.
      • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.28%
      • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4.9%
    • Sept. 5, 7 p.m.: El Salvador’s Statistics and Census Office releases August consumer price inflation data.
      • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.33%
      • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. -0.14%
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • Sept. 4: Cango (CANG), post-market
    • Sept. 9: GameStop (GME), post-market, $0.19

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Arbitrum DAO is voting on upgrading Arbitrum One and Nova to ArbOS 50 Dia, adding support for Ethereum’s Fusaka fork, new EIPs, bug fixes and a native mint/burn feature (for Orbit chains only). Voting ends Sept. 4.
    • Uniswap DAO is voting on deploying Uniswap v3 on Ronin with $1M in RON and $500K in UNI incentives to make it the chain’s primary decentralized exchange. Voting ends Sept. 6.
    • Lido DAO is voting on a proposal to migrate Nethermind’s ~7,000 Ethereum validators to infrastructure operated by Twinstake, a staking provider co-founded by Nethermind. Voting ends Sept. 8.
    • Uniswap DAO is voting to establish “DUNI,” a Wyoming DUNA as its legal entity, preserving decentralized governance while enabling off-chain operations and liability protections, with $16.5M in UNI for legal/tax budgets and $75K in UNI for compliance. Voting ends Sept. 8.
    • Uniswap DAO is voting on an updated Unichain-USDS growth plan to accelerate adoption through performance-based incentives and DAO-guided distribution. The proposal introduces minimum KPIs, a “No result, no reward” model. Voting ends Sept. 9.
  • Unlocks
    • Sept. 5: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.27% of its circulating supply worth $12.43 million.
    • Sept. 11: Aptos APT$4.2296 to unlock 2.2% of its circulating supply worth $48.41 million.
    • Sept. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 5.98% of its circulating supply worth $15.33 million.
    • Sept. 15: Sei SEI$0.2798 to unlock 1.18% of its circulating supply worth $15.89 million.
    • Sept. 16: Arbitrum ARB$0.4860 to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $46.02 million.
  • Token Launches
    • Sept. 4: Gata (GATA) to be listed on Binance Alpha, MEXC, Bitget, Gate.io, and others.
    • Sept. 4: Tradoor (TRADOOR) to be listed on Binance Alpha, Bitget, MEXC and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation Conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB15 for 15% off your registration.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

  • Donald Trump-linked DeFi token word liberty financial (WLFI) slumped to a record low $0.174 on Thursday as the token’s popularity begins to fade just days after its trading debut.
  • The 21% daily drawdown can be attributed to a number of factors, notably the fact that some token holders are still in profit after purchasing during the token sale. These holders will be tempted to lock in their profits as hype around the project fades.
  • One trader made $250 million after buying $15 million during the sale, another lost $2.2 million after going long on WLFI futures.
  • While WLFI is linked to the U.S. president, in terms of development and innovation, there’s nothing obvious to differentiate it from the thousands of other DeFi-themed tokens. As a result traders may be inclined to jump ship until they see development of the project.
  • “WLFI team, stop sleeping and start taking action. The community is already angry, at least don’t lose the last remaining investors,” one holder wrote on X.
  • The chart looks eerily similar to the TRUMP memecoin that was released in January. After a period of initial upside, TRUMP lost 89% of its value and daily volume dwindled from $39 billion on opening day to just $210 million in the past 24 hours.
  • In an attempt to quell the selling pressure, the project revealed on X that WLFI held by the team would not be sold on the open market, stating that every token in the treasury would be subject to governance and not the team’s discretion.
  • The tweet failed to stem the decline, and prices continued to tumble shortly after.

Derivatives Positioning

  • BTC derivatives positioning has cooled, activity is still there however, with momentum and directional conviction looking muted rather than stagnant.
  • Open interest in perpetual futures across major venues has dropped from the recent peak near $33 billion to about $30 billion.
  • At the same time, the three-month annualized basis keeps compressing to roughly 5%–6% across Binance, OKX and Deribit, leaving the carry trade only marginally profitable.
  • Options data is sending mixed signals. While the upward-sloping implied volatility curve suggests the market expects long-term volatility to be higher than short-term, other metrics point to a more immediate bearish outlook.
  • Specifically, the 25 delta skew continues to be either flat or slightly negative, with traders paying a premium for puts over calls to gain downside protection. This short-term bearish sentiment is contradicted by 24-hour put call volume, with calls (63%) dominating options contracts for BTC.
  • Funding rate APRs across major perpetual swap venues are little changed around 4%-6% annualized, according to Velo data. Hyperliquid is the only exchange with a rate higher than 6% for BTC, reflecting a pocket of stronger long-term interest relative to other exchanges. Overall, funding dynamics suggest a stable market with isolated signs of froth, rather than broad directional conviction.
  • Coinglass data shows $225 million in 24-hour liquidations, with a 50-50 split between longs and shorts. ETH ($65million), BTC ($46 million) and others ($19 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations.
  • The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $110,250 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price drop.

Market Movements

  • BTC is down 1.06% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $111,024.03 (24hrs: -0.39%)
  • ETH is down 1.58% at 4,395.87 (24hrs: +0.84%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 1.28% at 4,035.47 (24hrs: -0.24%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 2 bps at 2.87%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0038% (4.1873% annualized) on Binance
CoinDesk 20 Index components' performance.
  • DXY is up 0.15% at 98.29
  • Gold futures are down 1.01% at $3,598.80
  • Silver futures are down 1.23% at $41.03
  • Nikkei 225 closed up 1.53% at 42,580.27
  • Hang Seng closed down 1.12% at 25,058.51
  • FTSE is up 0.19% at 9,194.99
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,326.92
  • DJIA closed on Wednesday unchanged at 45,271.23
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.51% at 6,448.26
  • Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.02% at 21,497.73
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.47% at 28,751.36
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.11% at 2,756.91
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1.6 bps at 4.195%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.17% at 6,468.25
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.24% at 23,505.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 45,308.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 58.44% (+0/13%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03961 (-0.58%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 990 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $54.54
  • Total fees: 6.28 BTC / $701,021
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 134,255 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 31.3 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 8.77%

Technical Analysis

TA Sept 4 2025
  • Altcoin dominance (excluding the top 10) has rebounded from a bottom just under 6% and is now testing key resistance near 8%. A decisive break above this level could signal sustained outperformance of alts relative to bitcoin
  • However, the move so far has been driven by a select number of tokens rather than a broad-based “alt season.”
  • Even if resistance is broken, this trend is likely to remain concentrated, not a wholesale surge across the entire altcoin universe.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $302.31 (-0.41%), unchanged in pre-market
  • Circle (CRCL): closed at $118.46 (-1.4%), +0.82% at $119.43
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.39 (+0.95%), +1.15% at $24.67
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $54.26 (-12.53%), -1.68% at $53.35
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.89 (-1.06%), -1.13% at $15.71
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.45 (-4.54%), -0.3% at $13.41
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.58 (-3%)
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.44 (-2.07%), -0.42% at $9.40
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $30.70 (-2.97%)
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $24.33 (-1.86%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $330.26 (-3.33%), -0.17% at $329.71
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $29.01 (-1.23%)
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $16.82 (-0.94%), -2.79% at $16.35
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $6.63 (-3.77%), +1.66% at $6.74
  • Mei Pharma (MEIP): closed at $4.53 (-6.6%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $300.5 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $54.85 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$38.2 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $13.36 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~6.54 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

COD sept 4 2025
  • Comparing bitcoin price action with global M2 (a broad measure of money supply) on a six-week lead — shorter than the more commonly used 10-week lead — shows a striking correlation since the second quarter.
  • If this relationship persists, the model points to a potential BTC bottom around Sept. 11, followed by a resumption of the rally.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

Streamer coin
Bitcoin’s volatility remains extremely low, even as macro uncertainty peaks.
The odds of a September rate cut now stand at 96%
Gold's market cap has increased by $6.5 trillion this year.
Credit to the Commission and Staff for their impressive work. This process has been accomplished in record timing.

Saksham Diwan contributed to this newsletter.