By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The sun shone on crypto markets early Wednesday, with bitcoin having another go at $88,000 amid growing chatter about bullish seasonality factors as March draws to a close and the second quarter looms.
The last 10 years of price data tracked by analyst Miles Deutscher show April as the turning point for the market, with a 75% chance of upside between now and year-end. The pattern was noted by QCP Capital as well, which pointed to the second quarter, and April in particular, as bullish for crypto.
“The S&P 500 has delivered an average annualized return of 19.6% in Q2, while Bitcoin has also recorded its second-best median performance during this stretch – again, trailing only Q4,” the Singapore-based firm said on Telegram.
Seasonality factors are not as reliable as standalone indicators, but when coupled with other signs, such as the recent halt in selling by long-term holders, they appear credible.
The so-called 1Y+HODL wave indicator, which tracks the proportion of Bitcoin addresses (or wallets) that have kept their BTC for at least one year, has turned upward, signaling a shift into a holding strategy, according to data source Bitbo Charts. See Chart of the Day, below, too.
Reports that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is drafting rules to remove reputational risk from its bank supervision were labeled “a big win for crypto” by White House crypto czar David Sacks. “In practice, this vague and subjective criteria was used to justify the debanking of lawful crypto businesses through Operation Chokepoint 2.0,” Sacks said on X.
Speaking of the wider market, social media talk about stablecoins has picked up, with observers pointing to $31.8 billion in stablecoins sitting on the sidelines on Binance as potential dry powder waiting for a catalyst. BlackRock’s decision to debut a physical bitcoin exchange-traded product in Europe with a reduced total expense ratio of 15 bps is seen as highly positive as well, considering fees are generally higher there than in the U.S., capping widespread adoption.
Still, macroeconomic uncertainty has the potential to play spoilsport and keep animal spirits at bay. While recent media reports suggest President Donald Trump’s expected reciprocal tariffs on April 2 may be softer than expected, there is still considerable confusion concerning the legality of the tariffs and the countries and sectors that will be targeted.
The deeper slide in U.S. consumer confidence in March and the death cross in the USD/JPY pair, indicating a strengthening of the yen, a haven currency, ahead, don’t help matters either. So stay alert!
What to Watch
- Crypto:
- Macro
- March 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases (Final) Q4 GDP data.
- GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 3.1%
- Core PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.2%
- PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. 1.5%
- Real Consumer Spending QoQ Est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 3.7%
- March 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended March 22.
- Initial Jobless Claims Est. 225K vs. Prev. 223K
- March 27, 10:00 a.m.: The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on the nomination of Paul Atkins to the chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Livesteam link.
- March 27, 3:00 p.m.: Mexico’s central bank announces its interest rate decision.
- Target Rate Est. 9% vs. Prev. 9.5%
- March 28, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases February unemployment rate data.
- Unemployment Rate Est. 6.8% vs. Prev. 6.5%
- March 28, 8:00 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases February unemployment rate data.
- Unemployment Rate Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.7%
- March 28, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases January GDP data.
- GDP MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%
- March 28, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases February consumer income and expenditure data.
- Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%
- Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.6%
- PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%
- PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.5%
- Personal Income MoM Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 0.9%
- Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. -0.2%
- April 2, 12:01 a.m.: The Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs plan goes live.
- March 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases (Final) Q4 GDP data.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
- Governance votes & calls
- Unlocks
- March 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.93% of its circulating supply worth $28.88 million.
- April 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $164.34 million.
- April 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 6.05% of its circulating supply worth $14.39 million.
- April 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.77% of its circulating supply worth $17.29 million.
- April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $143.5 million.
- April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $11.98 million.
- April 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $27.29 million.
- Token Listings
- March 27: Walrus (WAL) to be listed on Gate.io and Bybit.
- March 28: Binance to delist Aergo (AERGO).
- March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.
Conferences
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
- PumpSwap has rapidly gained new users and over $1.2 billion in trading volumes just days after going live and now accounts for nearly 15% of on-chain trading activity on Solana.
- Pump Fun introduced PumpSwap last week as its own decentralized exchange (DEX), aiming to streamline token migrations and trading.
- Pump Fun, a prominent Solana-blockchain platform, gained traction for enabling rapid token creation and deployment, often associated with memecoins. It has facilitated over 1.5 million token launches since its early 2024 debut, finding an audience looking to trade microcap tokens on Solana’s low-cost, high-speed network.
- Tokens migrated to Solana DEX Raydium after they hit a $69,000 market capitalization on Pump.Fun. With PumpSwap, the tokens (and trading fees) never leave the broader Pump ecosystem.
- Abracadabra Money’s gmCauldrons suite suffered a hack on Tuesday. resulting in a $13 million MIM loss. The rest of the Abracadabra product ecosystem was not affected, with the DAO outlining a recovery plan in “Abracadabra Money: The Path Forward.”
- The DAO treasury, holding $19 million in assets, has already acquired 6.5 million MIM to repay 50% of the loss, with plans to cover the remaining amount in the coming months, demonstrating a proactive response to mitigate the impact.
Derivatives Positioning
- SHIB’s perpetual futures open interest has risen by 14%, outpacing other major cryptocurrencies, while BTC and ETH open interest has dropped by under 1% in the past 24 hours.
- A meme token receiving more net inflows than other assets is often a precursor to a market correction.
- Perpetual funding rates for most major tokens, excluding TRX, BNB and SUI, remain positive, but below an annualized 10%, signifying a moderately bullish positioning.
- Deribit’s BTC and ETH options continue to cast doubts on the recent price recovery, sporting a bullish call bias only after May expiries.
- Block flows featured a BTC bull call spread in the September expiry involving $90K and $125K strikes. In ETH’s case, flows leaned slightly bearish with outright longs in put options at $1.9K and $2K strikes.
Market Movements:
- BTC is up 0.14% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $88,019.03 (24hrs: +1.02%)
- ETH is down 0.25% at $2,060.34 (24hrs: -0.22%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.28% at 2,811.12 (24hrs: +0.96%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps at 2.95%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0101% (3.6869% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 104.23
- Gold is unchanged at $3,024.80/oz
- Silver is up 0.5% at $34.17/oz
- Nikkei 225 closed +0.65% at 38,027.29
- Hang Seng closed +0.6% at 23,483.32
- FTSE is unchanged at 8,668.40
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.65% at 5,439.52
- DJIA closed on Tuesday unchanged at 42,587.50
- S&P 500 closed +0.16 at 5,776.65
- Nasdaq closed +0.46% at 18,271.86
- S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.14% at 25,339.50
- S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.03% at 2,480.80
- U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 1 bps at 4.33%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.15% at 5,817.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.2% at 20,448.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.12% at 42,854.00
Bitcoin Stats:
- BTC Dominance: 61.46 (-0.03%)
- Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02344 (-0.85%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 838 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $50.17
- Total Fees: 13.1 BTC / $1,152,066
- CME Futures Open Interest: 147,550 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 29.1 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 8.26%
Technical Analysis
- The yen-dollar’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has crossed under its 200-day SMA, confirming a so-called death cross bearish momentum pattern.
- It’s a sign of an impending rally in the yen, seen as a haven currency, which could destabilize risk assets, including cryptocurrency.
- The yen-bullish pattern comes as talk of Bank of Japan rate increases gathers pace.
Crypto Equities
- Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $341.81 (+1.81%), up 0.47% at $343.40 in pre-market
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $204.23 (+0.59%), down 0.11% at $204
- Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$18.65
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.25 (-2.46%), down 0.35% at $14.30
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.51 (-2.41%), down 0.12% at $8.50
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.66 (-6.98%), down 0.12% at $8.65
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.73 (-0.68%), down 0.11% at $8.72
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $15.65 (-4.05%)
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $42.38 (-1.17%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $56.04 (+6.46%), up 0.82% at $56.50
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
- Daily net flow: $26.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $36.24 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1,115 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: -$3.3 million
- Cumulative net flows: $2.43 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 3.415 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
- The chart shows represents the proportion of crypto addresses — or wallets — that have held their bitcoin for at least one year without any outgoing transactions.
- The metric has turned up in recent weeks, rising from 61.8% to 63.4% in a sign of renewed holding sentiment.
While You Were Sleeping
In the Ether
